Methodology

Evidence

Every number carries a tag: [3P] third-party · [FDR] founder-stated · [OBS] our own daily instrument reading · [INF] our inference · [1P-SELF] our own books. Numbers link to their source and say when we read them. Where we can’t verify, we write UNKNOWN — never an estimate, never a range, never “roughly”. Two sourced numbers make a ratio; one sourced number and a blank makes a dash.

The sanity gate

An instrument reading that swings more than 60% overnight with no confirmed event on tape is quarantined: the page shows the last verified value with its date and an UNDER REVIEW mark — never the implausible number. Quarantined readings are listed on /corrections/ until confirmed or corrected. Suspicion of our own instrument is the default, not the exception.

Calls

A call is a falsifiable claim with a confidence tier (COINFLIP 50–59 · LEAN 60–69 · STRONG 70–84 · LOCK 85+), a deadline, and a default verdict for the no-data case — all frozen at issue, fingerprinted on the call’s permanent page. Verdicts are graded by script against the reading dated exactly on the deadline. No reading that day — or an unparseable one — triggers the frozen default: no data, no verdict. Open calls are capped at four: a new call needs a resolved slot.

Deaths

Three consecutive silent days puts a board on the public docket — a clock, not a verdict. A death is confirmed only after we rule out our own instrument: crawler, proxy, network. Our failures are stamped VOID in the public false-alarm ledger and never counted against the company. Days our instrument fails never advance anyone’s clock. Confirmed deaths move to the graveyard with a dated case file.

Corrections

If a cited party disputes a number, we handle it publicly within 48 hours on /corrections/: new version, dated; the old version stays reachable. A verdict caused by a script bug gets a “correction to a verdict” appended — the original is never edited. Contact: /contact/.

Roles

Each board carries a market-position role, orthogonal to life status: FRONTRUNNER the baseline others compare against · CHALLENGER verified traction, openly positioned against the frontrunner · SPECIALIST a narrower lane, in its own words · BOOTSTRAPPER small team, no funding record found (not the same as none) · LONGSHOT not enough evidence to place yet · ACQUIRED bought, role in transit. Role changes are logged events, never silent edits.